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Eight months after his final sale, he came out of retirement to offer a freebie in college-football: Army as an eight-point underdog against Notre Dame. Before launching Pregame, Bell offered free picks.
But where was the money in that. His NCAA domain squatting may offer a hint: The real profit was in lucrative referral deals with offshore sportsbooks. Bettors signed up for free picks, and Bell accumulated a massive database of names and email addresses that he could sell to sportsbooks. According to a Pregame advertising kit circa 2010, the average Pregame and FPBE user was a fairly avid bettor who played at multiple books. Sportsbooks less able or inclined to spend six figures could sign up as standard advertisers.
A testimonial of his is featured on the home page of WebPartners, an affiliate go-between and Costa Rica-based bookmaker. A cookie-based tracking system and unique token ensured that those who clicked on the ads and then deposited money at Mybookie would be credited as referrals of WagerTalk.
Every month thereafter, site heads would be sent a monthly statement and a check for their cut of those losses. Industry standard Sportsbook Review gives Mybookie a C rating. WagerTalk ranked Mybookie as its top sportsbook. As Johnny Detroit was handling the arrangements with sportsbooks, Bell was doing his part to push their merged tout service to the public.
Their break came in 2007, provided by disgraced NBA referee and heavy gambler Tim Donaghy. The figures he put out grabbed their attention, and Bell was invited onto CBS News, ABC News, and ESPN, quoted by the Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, and the Associated Press. To this day, numerous outlets still say Bell provided the statistical evidence that broke the Donaghy story.
For example, Bell pointed out that Donaghy refereed 13 games during the 2006-07 season in which the margin fell within one point of the spread. Suchanek showed that this was what would be expected from random chance. But when asked by Suchanek to disclose the list of those games, Bell declined. You guys would rather a sober recitation of the facts.Vfr tourism is it underestimated
He encouraged first-time visitors to check out their many offers: Pregame Wire, Pregame Buzz, Free Picks from Pro Bettors, FreePicksByEmail, and Sportsbook Spy. Waiting for them was an ocean of ads from sportsbooks and offers of generous sign-up bonuses. And maybe some surprises. Pregame would have to sell subscriptions and single-game picks by the truckload.TRATOR FORD 6610 4X4 A VENDA!!!
Then I learned about the affiliate sheets. Based on the rates Bell was charging sportsbooks just to advertise on Pregame, the multimillion-dollar valuation seems logical.
At any one time, Pregame appeared to carry seven preferred sportsbooks. Just watch the money roll in. If tout services knew their customers were winning, the smart choice would be the one-time deposit, instead of one tied to losing. The oddsmaker said he has never seen touts choose the deposit. After the Donaghy scandal, Bell and Johnny Detroit tried to make Pregame. So they funneled their sportsbook referrals through Canadian-registered Pregame Action, a go-between which may have provided a way around a U.
Two months before Pregame Action went missing, Johnny Detroit left. Johnny Detroit apparently recuperated quickly.Many things I have never considered. Thank you for opening my eyes. Reply4 months 23 days agoJarinShare On TwitterShare On GoogleI am thoroughly fascinated.
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Proudly powered by WordPress. Below is just a selection of some of our digital photography tips and tutorials aimed more at the beginner photographer. These Beginner Tips just scratch the Surface of our archives. Subscribe to Digital Photography School for more great tips today. Join this great new dPS course here.
You have characters left. The ERP is the premium you get from holding stocks, expressed as a percentage over some supposed risk-free measure such as the 10-year gilt rate.
And there's nothing wrong with that. It's true that most often investors are rewarded long term for taking extra volatility risk. Since 1926, the average annualised ERP has been 4. And theoretically, investors should be rewarded for suffering through stock market swings. If you weren't likely to get higher reward for higher risk, why would anyone want the higher risk.
The problem is that some academics try to model future ERPs - predicting future stock returns. I've never seen any ERP model stand up to historical back-testing. Yet every year, we get a new wave of them. When I say future, I mean most ERPs attempt forecasting far into the future - usually seven to 10 years (10 is most common).
Yet stock returns in the near term - over the next 12 to 24 months - are driven mostly by shifts in demand, and even those are devilishly difficult to forecast. Further out, supply pressures swamp all, so there is absolutely no way to predict stock market direction seven or 10 years out unless you can somehow predict future stock supply shifts. But not a single ERP model I've ever seen has addressed the issue of predicting long-term supply flows.
And if you can't address future supply, your model is worthless because with securities, in the long term supply is all that matters. None of these ERPs stands up to historical back-testing, or if they do it's merely accidentalInstead, most ERP models make forward-looking assumptions based on cobbled-together current or past conditions.
But right away you know past performance is never, by itself, indicative of future results. An example of an ERP model might look like this: take the current dividend yield, the average earnings per share over the last 10 years, plus the current inflation rate, and subtract the bond yield.
Add or subtract a few components. Mix that together with a guesstimate for some percentage by which stocks are supposed to beat bonds over the next 10 years, based on what treasuries are yielding now. Except what does today's dividend yield, inflation yield, earnings or anything else have to say about what will happen 10 years from now.
Or even three years. Academics who are prone to bearishness - surprise. They say: "The ERP will be below average for the next 10 years, just 1.Light troffer diffuser slot reduces the room
On the upside, bullish academics (who are fewer) produce bullish ERPs with their own biases. Still, bullish or bearish, all ERP projections are as much bunk as anyone else's long-term forecasts: bias-based guesstimates, nothing more. Another ERP red flag. ERP models usually predict 2 or 2. They can easily check history. Looking backward, ERPs are very wildly variable.
After all, normal stock returns are extreme, not average. The table below shows historic ERPs by decade. The 1960s and 1980s ERPs were darn close to the long-term average ERP of 4.
There have been negative ERPs - in the 1930s. The same thing happened in the 2000s. The ERP was just flat in the 1970s, while stocks overall were positive (though below average). Simply, academic ERPs are usually too bearish, don't address past wide variability, don't stand up to back-testing and can't address future stock supply shifts.
Stocks historically do pretty well long-term versus cash or bonds, but in a widely varying pathYet, academics still produce them, the press promotes them, and the investing world laps them up - because they sound quantitative, academic, sophisticated and rigorous.Meet the I'm A Celebrity 2017 contestant and Hollyoaks starThe ex-Premier League star is best known for his role as Hollyoaks villianFaryal MakhdoomAmir Khan's wife Faryal Makhdoom reveals REAL reason why she isn't in Australia as she gives opinion on Iain amid 'bullying' on I'm A CelebShe insists their marriage is back on trackDennis WiseDennis Wise says he was made to look like a bully on I'm A CelebrityThe former Chelsea and England star has accused ITV of editing the reality show to make him look mean towards fellow campmate Iain LeeI'm A Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here'It made me feel uncomfortable' I'm A Celebrity's 'bullying' goes 'way too far' as three male campmates gang up on Iain LeeThe 'nasty' trio of Dennis Wise, Jamie Lomas and Amir Khan took turns to attack Iain as pressure mounts on show bosses to actMollie KingStrictly's Mollie King and AJ Pritchard appear to confirm romance with revealing reactions to Claudia Winkleman's kissing jokeTheir fellow dancers were left in fits of giggles as Mollie slapped the presenter after she revealed allI'm A Celebrity Get Me Out Of HereWhen does I'm a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here 2017 end.
For some, gambling can become a problem. Whether you have a gambling problem or know someone who needs help, resources are available. The New Horizons Conference has become a hub of thought leadership in the responsible gambling industry. Please visit BCLC CorporateMatch your Keno numbers to the numbers drawn to see if you win. Your prize will depend on how many numbers you picked and how many numbers you matched. The maximum prize that can be won on a Keno ticket with Keno Bonus for any given draw is 10 times the value of the Keno prize.
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When a binary outcome variable is modeled using logistic regression, it is assumed that the logit transformation of the outcome variable has a linear relationship with the predictor variables.
This makes the interpretation of the regression coefficients somewhat tricky. In this page, we will walk through the concept of odds ratio and try to interpret the logistic regression results using the concept of odds ratio in a couple of examples.
Everything starts with the concept of probability. Then the probability of failure is 1. The odds of success are defined as the ratio of the probability of success over the probability of failure. In our example, the odds of success are. That is to say that the odds of success are 4 to 1.
If the probability of success is. The transformation from probability to odds is a monotonic transformation, meaning the odds increase as the probability increases or vice versa. Probability ranges from 0 and 1. Odds range from 0 and positive infinity. Below is a table of the transformation from probability to odds and we have also plotted for the range of p less than or equal to. Again this is a monotonic transformation. That is to say, the greater the odds, the greater the log of odds and vice versa.
The table below shows the relationship among the probability, odds and log of odds. We have also shown the plot of log odds against odds.Every candlestick represents the selected periodicity (read more inblog) You can change the periodicity above the chart.
Please refresh the page and try again. The prices change in real-time, so the rates and fees are estimates rather than exactvalues. Limit orders give the trader more control over the execution prices. But if the price movesaway from the limit price, the order will not be executed. The market price is defined as the best available price for the instrument at the moment when the order is placed.
Since the price changes in real-time the total and fee are provided as estimates rather than exact values. Limit A Limit order is an order to execute a transaction only at a specified price (the limit) or better. A limitorder to buy would be at the limit or lower, and a limit order to sell would be at the limit or higher. Limit orders are used by investors who have decided on the price at which they are willing to trade.
Scaled Scaled order is a set of multiple orders to buy or sell, automatically distributed among the user-determined price range (from minimum price to maximum). Amount could have flat, upscale and downscale distribution. Day automatically expires if not executed on the day the order was places. A day ends at 00:00 UTC time.
A Stop Limit order is an order to buy or sell a currency once the price reaches a specified price, known as the stop price. Your order will be placed immediately. Maximum 100 orders are allowed to be placed. Please adjust your settings. Click on the trading pair in title to see ALL orders and trades.
The entire history is available here. Register today and get instant access to your demo account.
Join HitBTC Try demo trading Knowledge is power Our platform gives you all the info you need, when you need it. Get trading We handle thousands of trades fordifferent crypto pairs daily.Alberto Moreno could be sidelined for up to six weeks with an ankle injury. The Liverpool left-back will be assessed by a second specialist over the weekend but the fear is the problem, sustained in Wednesday's 7-0 win over Spartak Moscow, could keep him out until the new year.
James Milner is likely to fill the vacancy for Sunday's Merseyside derby at home to Everton while captain Jordan Henderson is set to start in midfield after sitting out in midweek. Senegalese international Cheikhou Kouyate will be sidelined for Saturday's EPL match against Chelsea.
The West Ham midfielder injured a hamstring in Sunday's defeat at Manchester City and will also miss next Wednesday's home game against Arsenal. Seattle Sounders midfielder Osvaldo Alonso has been ruled out of this weekend's MLS Cup final after failing a fitness test on Thursday. Alonso suffered a strained quad in September that he has been dealing with ever since. He made a substitute appearance versus Vancouver in the Western Conference semifinals but has otherwise been sidelined throughout the playoff push.
UEFA announced on Thursday that Real Madrid defender Dani Carvajal will miss the holder's Champions League last-16 first leg tie after issuing a two game ban for appearing to deliberately pick up a booking. Carvajal was shown a yellow card in the 90th minute for time wasting in the 6-0 win over APOEL. As it was his third, it ruled him out of Wednesday's victory over Dortmund, but in theory would have meant he was available for the round of 16 next February.
However, UEFA Control, Ethics and Disciplinary Body found that Carvajal had breached Article 15 of the Disciplinary Regulations. Stoke manager Mark Hughes says Bruno Martins Indi will be out for up to eight weeks as he recovers from a groin injury.
The Netherlands international had to be substituted during last weekend's 2-1 triumph over Swansea. He has started his treatment already, but it will be a long process.
Goalkeeper Gianlugi Buffon did not even feature against the Greek side as he continues to recover from a calf injury. Stephan Lichtsteiner has also missed the past two games with a muscle injury and is doubtful. Mehdi Benatia returned to training and is no longer a doubt while Mario Mandzukic is now fully recovered from his injury and highly likely to feature against Inter. Giorgio Chiellini is also likely to return after the flu kept him out of the Olympiacos game.
Louis Blues placed goaltender Carter Hutton on injured reserve Friday with a lower-body injury.
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